Indonesia's palm oil subsector

Debate on Indonesia's palm oil policy was stimulated by a sharp increase in cooking oil prices in 1994-95 and a resulting increase in the export tax rate on crude palm oil. Palm oil has been one of the fastest growing subsectors in Indonesia. Using a quantitative model, the author analyzes the effect of government policies, including the export tax, buffer stock operations by the BULOG (the national logistics agency), and directed sales from public estates. The author acknowledges the export tax's effectiveness in lowering domestic prices, but observes that its impact on inflation and consumer welfare is minimal. The tax has also had the unintended effect of transferring income from oil palm growers located primarily off Java. The structure of the tax discourages local processing by squeezing processing margins. And determining tax rates on palm oil products independent from the underlying crude palm oil price creates uncertainty about marketing margins for processors. The author recommends repealing the tax and discontinuing buffer stock operations and directed sales from public estates. The author concludes with recommendations on investment policy. Direct incentives to private investors have been used to overcome investment risks and uncertainties, but investors should no longer need those incentives. Instead, Indonesia's government should focus more on alleviating obstacles to private investment. The Bank might be of assistance in this area.Markets and Market Access,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Consumption,Economic Theory&Research,Consumption,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets

Risks, lessons learned, and secondary markets for greenhouse gas reductions

Collectively or individually, countries are likely to implement policies designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Experience from tradable quota schemes suggests that emissions trading could significantly reduce the costs of emission limits. The Kyoto Protocol provides the framework for a common trading mechanism for all countries - including countries that would not face immediate emission limits. Significantly, the Protocol places the responsibility for meeting emission limits with national governments. How policymakers choose to implement emission limits will significantly shape the incentives that drive evolving secondary markets for greenhouse-gas-based instruments. Potential market participants who were surveyed rate policy-related risk as higher than business-related risks. Domestic polices designed to reduce fragmentation in secondary markets, establish clear baselines and procedures, and strengthen host-country institutions can all help reduce the risks and costs of emission limits.Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Carbon Policy and Trading,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

Sugar policy and reform

Reviewing cross-country experience with sugar policies, and policy reform, the authors conclude that long-standing government interventions - rooted in historical trade arrangements, fear of shortages, and conflicting interests between growers, and sugar mills - often displace both the markets, and the institutions required to produce efficient outcomes. Arrangements rooted in colonial eras, still shape policies, and trade in the United States, the European Union (EU), and many developing countries. Once policies, and institutions are put in place, households, and the value of investments grow dependent on them, even as their usefulness fades. Firms and households make decisions that are costly to reverse. And the result is a legacy of path-dependent policies, in which approaches, and instruments are greatly influenced by past agreements, and previous interventions. The cumulative effects of these interventions are embodied in livelihoods, political institutions, capital stocks, and factor markets - which not only dictate the starting point for reform, but also determine which reform paths are feasible. Experiments with public ownership, common in many countries, have not succeeded. So most countries have initiated some measure of market reform. And events relating to NAFTA, Lome, and expansion of the EU, may bring about significant changes in the EU, and US sugar regimes, with cascading effects on other countries. Common problems in the sector include determining cane quality, finding methods for fairly sharing revenues from joint production, finding ways to take advantage of preferential trade arrangements with minimal negative consequences, finding ways to finance, and encourage research, and other activities with common benefits, identifying practices that facilitate equitable, sustainable privatization, and determining the relationship between sugar market reform, and markets in land, water, credit, and other inputs.Food&Beverage Industry,Environmental Economics&Policies,Agribusiness,Agribusiness&Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Agribusiness&Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Agribusiness,Agricultural Trade

The effects of option hedging on the costs of domestic price stabilization schemes

Casual observation leads to the conclusion that stabilization funds tend to be short-lived. While it may be that some funds have failed due to poor management or unwarranted political interventions, the stochastic components of commodity prices can generate insurmountable difficulties for even the most expert managers. Price-band schemes contain an element of information feed-back and offer transparent rules -- attributes which make such schemes preferable to many alternative mechanisms -- but the benefits to producers tend to be, on average, quite small. Similar average benefits can be generated with very small import taxes or producer subsidies. Nevertheless, such schemes can have large single-year effects. The simulation results demonstrate that, if adopted, such funds should be hedged unless the government is not at all adverse to the fund's financial failure. Still, hedged or unhedged, such funds will, with eventual certainty, generate large levels of debt as a statistically"rare"sequence of events must eventually occur. By hedging, the funds are more likely to survive in the short-run.Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

The performance of Bulgarian food markets during reform

Food policy often depends on markets and markets depend on institutions. But how good do institutions have to be before reforms can be launched? Relying on well timed surveys of agricultural prices and a joint study by the Government of Bulgaria and the World Bank on agricultural market institutions, this paper presents evidence that performance in food markets improved following significant policy reforms in Bulgaria, although public institutions remained weak. This suggests that even though strong institutions are preferred to weak ones, it can be costly and impractical to delay policy reforms until work on strengthening institutions is finished. Still, measured performance varied by place and by commodity, suggesting that markets developed at different tempos and that the distribution of benefits from improved markets was uneven. This points to the need to address the costs of adjustment as policies change. The paper introduces a new approach to measure market performance based on composite-error techniques.Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Agribusiness

Resource management and the effects of trade on vulnerable places and people : lessons from six case studies

Lessons from six case studies illustrate the complex relationships between international trade, vulnerable ecologies and the poor. The studies, taken from Africa, Asia and Latin America and conducted by local researchers, are set in places where the poor live in close proximity to ecologies that are important to global conservation efforts, and focus on the cascading consequences of trade policy for local livelihoods and environmental services. Collectively, the studies show how under-valued common resources are often poorly protected and consequently subject to shifting economic incentives, including those that arise from trade. The studies provide examples where trade works to accelerate the use of natural resources and to exacerbate unsustainable dependencies by the poor, and other examples where trade has the opposite effect. An important conclusion is that local livelihood and technology choices have important consequences for how environmental resources are used and should be taken into account when designing policies to safeguard fragile ecologies.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Labor Policies,Population Policies

Will markets direct investments under the Kyoto Protocol ?

Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries can meet treaty obligations by investing in projects that reduce or sequester greenhouse gases elsewhere. Prior to ratification, treaty participants agreed to launch country-based pilot projects, referred to collectively as Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), to test novel aspects of the project-related provisions. Relying on a 10-year history of projects, the authors investigate the determinants of AIJ investment. Their findings suggest that national political objectives and possibly deeper cultural ties influenced project selection. This characterization differs from the market-based assumptions that underlie well-known estimates of cost-savings related to the Protocol's flexibility mechanisms. The authors conclude that if approaches developed under the AIJ programs to approve projects are retained, benefits from Kyoto's flexibility provisions will be less than those widely anticipated.Environmental Economics&Policies,Investment and Investment Climate,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Energy Production and Transportation,Economic Theory&Research

Incomplete markets and fertilizer use : evidence from Ethiopia

While the economic returns to using chemical fertilizer in Africa can be large, application rates are low. This study explores whether this is due to missing and imperfect markets. Results based on a panel survey of Ethiopian farmers suggest that while fertilizer markets are not altogether missing in rural Ethiopia, high transport costs, unfavorable climate, price risk, and illiteracy present formidable hurdles to farmer participation. Moreover, the combination of factors that promote or impede effective fertilizer markets differs among locations, making it difficult to find a single production technology that is uniformly profitable -- perhaps explaining the inconsistency between field studies finding large returns to fertilizer use in Ethiopia and survey-based studies finding fertilizer use to be uneconomic. The results suggest that households with greater stores of wealth, human capital and authority can overcome these hurdles. The finding offers some encouragement, but also implies a self-enforcing link between low agricultural productivity and poverty, since low-asset households are less able to overcome these problems. The study suggests that the provision of extension services can be effective and that lowering transport costs can raise the intensity of fertilizer use by lowering the cost of fertilizer and boosting the farmgate value of output.Climate Change and Agriculture,Fertilizers,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Access to Finance,Fertilizers&Agricultural Chemicals Industry

Do farmers chooseto be inefficient? evidence from Bicol, Philippines

Farming households that differ in their ability, or willingness to take on risks are likely to make different decisions when allocating resources, and effort among income-producing activities, with consequences for productivity. The authors measure voluntary, and involuntary departures from efficiency for rice-producing households in Bicol, Philippines. They take advantage of a panel of household observations from 1978, 1983, and 1994. The unusually long-time span of the panel provides ample opportunities for the surveyed households to learn, and apply successful available technologies. The authors find evidence that diversification, and technology choices do effect outcomes among farmers, although these effects are not dominant. Accumulated wealth, past decisions to invest in education, favorable market conditions, and propitious weather are also important determinants of efficiency outcomes among Bicol rice farmers.Labor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Economic Theory&Research,Climate Change,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Climate Change

On the relevance of world agricultural prices

This report is part of an attempt to model the global markets for primary commodities and to use these models for forecasting purposes as well as for policy analysis. In a free market, domestic prices on agricultural products could be expected to vary with world prices. But intervention is so common with agricultural products that prices vary between countries and gaps exist between world and domestic prices. International prices are often used as a proxy for domestic prices. But it is often claimed that world prices are irrelevant to agricultural development in countries that intervene in agricultural pricing. This paper examined the appropriateness of this substitution in measuring, for example, the agricultural supply response to price changes - particularly in the long run. It concluded that on the whole, world prices are indeed relevant. The results - for 18 countries and 17 commodities - are surprisingly robust, and invariant to both data sources and time/commodity pooling.Access to Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Pharmaceuticals&Pharmacoeconomics,Markets and Market Access